Summary of Toronto Real Estate Market Report - February 6, 2024

Dated: February 9 2024

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  1. 1-Home Sales and Listings (January 2024 vs. January 2023):

    • *Home sales increased by over one-third, driven by lower borrowing costs for fixed-rate mortgage products.
    • *New listings also rose year-over-year but at a slower rate than sales, resulting in tighter market conditions.
  2. 2-Market Conditions and Future Projections:

    • *Tighter market conditions may indicate potential renewed price growth as we approach the spring market.
    • *Positive start to 2024, with expectations of inflation receding, supporting lower interest rates.
    • *Anticipation of further home sales increase once the Bank of Canada cuts its policy rate in the second half of 2024.
    • *Predicted competition between buyers due to rising demand and constrained listing supply, leading to upward pressure on selling prices over the next two years.
  3. 3-Specific Figures (January 2024):

    • *4,223 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System, up over one-third from January 2023.
    • *New listings also increased year-over-year by approximately six per cent.
  4. 4-Month-over-Month Seasonally Adjusted Basis:

    • Both sales and new listings increased month-over-month, with sales outpacing listings, indicating tightened market conditions relative to December 2023.
  5. 5-MLS® Home Price Index and Average Selling Price (January 2024):

    • *MLS® Home Price Index Composite down by less than one per cent year-over-year.
    • *Average selling price down by one per cent year-over-year to $1,026,703.
    • *On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and average selling price trended lower.
  6. 6-Policy Considerations and Recommendations:

    • *Despite lower borrowing costs, policy issues at federal, provincial, and municipal levels need addressing.
    • *Reflection on OSFI mortgage stress test application at different interest rate cycle points required.
    • *Focus on building 1.5 million new homes at the provincial level.
    • *Caution against raising property taxes at the municipal level without consistent support from higher government levels.
    • *Emphasis on helping first-time homebuyers to ease pressure on the housing spectrum and rental market.
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Mark Nakhla

More than 20 Years as Self Employed Realtor....

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